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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

"Don't Wait. The Time will Never Be Just Right."--Napoleon Hill

One of my hobbies is to follow firms which are making a killing in a down market. Fortune in its Aug. 31 issue has done the heavy lifting. So let me focus on a couple of companies that seem to be making a joyful noise in these terrible times.

First up, Research in Motion [RIM], makers of the Blackberry. There seems to be no denying this great player, whose earnings per share grew at an annual rate averaged over the last three years of 84% with actual revenue for the past four quarters of $11 billion, making it No. 1 in Fortune’s Top 100 rankings. This is a tremendous achievement and shows what can happen when a leader decides to build on its existing franchise, to the point that it even outdistanced Apple, which had only 46% EPS growth over the last three years, with revenue in last four quarters of $33.6 billion. This despite the fact that in that period Apple introduced different versions of the iPod, upgraded its computer offerings and improved the iPhone (which had sales of 5.2 million in the quarter ending June 30).

After telephony, my attention turned to media which is in such a state right now that it wasn’t even represented in the top 100. The closest contenders from media’s sister tracks were first Dreamworks which because of its distribution deal with Walt Disney came in at 63, followed by Marvel Entertainment, creators of Spider-Man and the X-men, which managed to rank 64.

Retail, as you might imagine, took a pounding. There were only two apparel manufacturers listed: Deckers Outdoor the shoe company that makes those super-warm UGG boots topped out at 35 followed by Guess, the global retailer that is having such success in Europe, at 36.

In the fast food category, two chains made the rankings: Buffalo Wild Wings a sports-themed restaurant chain, at 82, and Chipolte Mexican Grill, which features 100% naturally raised chicken and had EPS (earnings- per-share) growth over three years of 40%, at 83.

Garmin, maker of portable navigation devices, many of them installed by car-makers at the factory, saw earnings grow 36% and was ranked 84. The company sold just under 17 million units last year, a 38% increase over 2007. So they are a brand to watch.

Many of the top 100 are technology and engineering companies you probably never heard of. But many are companies, which with improved marketing could do even better.

We don’t know what most of these brands are spending—but we know most of them [and I’m not including Apple here] are spending a lot less than they should.

For instance, according to the Brandweek 2009 Directory, Chipolte Mexican Grill only spent $5 million in measured media in 2008—most of it through its lead agency, DeVito Verde. By contrast, Buffalo Wild Wings, based in Minneapolis, spent a respectable $20 million through agency 22quared, Inc. in Atlanta.

UGGs isn’t even on the Brandweek radar yet, so it’s hard to know what they’re spending on advertising and marketing, if anything.

On the other hand, Garmin, with offices in Olathe, Kansas and Georgetown in the Cayman Islands, which has been a favorite of mine for several years, spent $51 million in measured media in 2008, all of it through Fallon in Minneapolis. Obviously they sense the opportunity to drive revenue by increasing consumer demand for their interesting product line of dash mounted GPS locators, and, through intelligent marketing, they are supporting the decision of some automakers to install their products at the factory.

Another brand I have recommended that agencies follow is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and I’m delighted to report they came in at 11 in the rankings—with revenue growth of 51%. Their coffees are sold in single-cup servings that require an investment in Keurig-like coffee brewers. But they’ve discovered that not only convenience stores like to stock their coffees—people want them in their homes. But they are not allocating enough dollars to marketing. According to Brandweek, in 2008 they spent only $36,000 [through Brandbuzz, an agency that specializes in word-of-mouth]. Obviously this is an exploding brand that needs to drive sales in the next three years by dedicating more dollars toward more traditional marketing.

Anyway I encourage you to get a copy of Fortune or download their rankings from the Web. Because these fast-growing, smaller brands are the kind of companies that ad agencies and marketing service companies should nurture early in their trajectory.

Business development people are always asking me what tomorrow’s hot brands will be. It’s interesting that few of them realize the answers have already been published for all of us to know and act on. So read this list and get going. These brands are hungry for smart marketing help.

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